Trump win would push Republican stock basket up 8%, Goldman says

Investing.com -- Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said their clients' near-term outlook depends on the US election result and they are becoming more comfortable positioning their investments with the crucial ballot in mind.

In a note to clients, the analysts said if investors believe Donald Trump will win the election and the Republican party will take control of Congress, they should buy their index comparing stock outperformers and underperformers in such an event.

However, should investors think Democrat Kamala Harris and her party emerge victorious following the Nov. 5 vote, they should opt for Goldman Sachs' index of Democratic policy outperformers versus underperformers, the analysts said.

Meanwhile, recent sensitivity of Goldman Sachs' tracker of possible Republican policy outperformers to election developments implies it could move 8% higher if Trump wins and his odds of being elected grow to 100% on online prediction market PredictIt, the analysts added.

"Over the summer, investors have tactically traded around election events and have shortly unwound their trades," the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

With only weeks to go until the Nov. 5 election, Harris is clinging to a narrow lead over Trump in national polling averages that she has held since joining the race in July.

But, crucially, polls remain all but even in seven key battleground states that could heavily impact the outcome of the all-important Electoral College result. A total of 538 Electoral College votes are available, with a candidate needing to reach 270 to win the presidency.

According to analysis website 538 and US broadcaster ABC News, Harris has slim leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump has a slight advantage in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.

Source: Investing.com