Nvidia earnings more important than CPI, Fed: Barclays

Investing.com -- Barclays analysts suggest that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA )'s upcoming earnings report on November 20 is poised to be the defining market catalyst of the year, eclipsing traditional macroeconomic events like CPI data and Federal Reserve decisions.

In a note Tuesday, the bank describes the heightened anticipation surrounding Nvidia's results as a reflection of the "outsized impact of AI" and renewed enthusiasm among retail investors for upside opportunities.

"Options show that NVDA results... will be the most important catalyst left for the remainder of the year," Barclays (LON:BARC ) writes.

The analysts highlight the unprecedented focus on single-stock dynamics, with Nvidia's performance serving as a barometer for broader market sentiment.

They add that retail investors' increased activity in call options on high-profile stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA ), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN ), and Palantir (NYSE:PLTR ) further underscores this trend.

Market expectations for Nvidia are sky-high, with options implying an 8% move following the earnings release, slightly below the two-year average realized volatility.

Barclays warns of "asymmetric risk," particularly given the influence of levered exchange-traded products (ETPs) centered on Nvidia, which could amplify volatility.

According to the bank, the impact of Nvidia's earnings isn't confined to U.S. markets.

They explain that in Europe, semiconductor giant ASML (AS:ASML ) is also seeing heightened activity tied to Nvidia's results.

Barclays says options on ASML are pricing in a larger-than-normal implied move of 3.3% despite its historically low correlation to Nvidia's earnings.

They conclude by cautioning against strategies like selling gamma ahead of Nvidia's results. The analysts note that high expectations combined with speculative activity in Nvidia-related financial products could lead to heightened market swings, making this earnings report a focal point for investors worldwide.

Source: Investing.com