Morgan Stanley lifts Nvidia price target, estimates ahead of earnings

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS ) raised its Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock estimates ahead of the company’s earnings report next week. Despite supply constraints, the firm anticipates another robust quarter for Nvidia, however, it believes that more significant upward revisions will occur later in the year.

The analysis notes that Nvidia's new products, particularly Blackwell, are fully supply-constrained, which could limit the upside for the current quarter and outlook.

Still, Morgan Stanley analysts expect that sales of Blackwell could reach close to $5-6 billion in the January quarter, which is above the implied number but slightly lower than expectations from a few weeks prior.

“It's hard to read this with any precision, to be clear, as the month-on-month ramp is so steep - a one-week pull in our push out has meaningful impact,” analysts led by Joseph Moore said in a note.

In terms of product demand, the firm notes that while demand for the H100 is weaker, the H200 is seeing stronger interest. This pattern aligns with previous quarters where Nvidia has surpassed guidance by approximately $2 billion and guided for sequential growth.

For the January quarter, consensus estimates are at $36.5 billion, and Morgan Stanley predicts that Nvidia could guide slightly higher, albeit constrained by supply issues.

The Wall Street firm also forecasts better gross margins for Nvidia in October, despite the initial Blackwell ramp expected to come at lower margins starting in January. The chipmaker had previously guided for a gross margin decline from 75.7% in July to 75.0% in October, which Morgan Stanley views as conservative.

They anticipate that the costs associated with the initial Blackwell rollout will not be repeated, and minimal mix-related headwinds are expected in October.

“That said, the ramp of Blackwell and associated products all brings immature yields and a little bit of margin uncertainty, so we would expect the company to still caution for further gross margin headwinds,” analysts added.

Morgan Stanley has raised its NVDA estimates for the second half of 2025. The firm's revenue, non-GAAP gross margins, and non-GAAP EPS forecasts for FY26 have been increased to $176.78 billion, 73.8%, and $4.03, respectively, up from $166.9 billion, 73.7%, and $3.78.

This adjustment also led to an increase in Nvidia's price target from $150 to $160, based on a 42x multiple of the firm's forward earnings per share estimates for the calendar year 2025.

Nvidia stock remains Morgan Stanley's top pick. The bank sees this as “something of a transitional quarter and thus not a major catalysts for the stock,” but it reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock amid expectations “that the Blackwell cycle will continue to drive meaningful upside through 2h.”

Source: Investing.com