Here's how UBS says the US election could impact European stocks
Investing.com -- The outlook for international trade and green energy policies following the US presidential election is likely to impact European equities, according to analysts at UBS.
Many Americans will head to the polls on Tuesday to cast their ballots, in what is shaping up to be one of the closest races in modern political history.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were campaigning furiously across key battleground in the final day before the vote as they tried to secure any last-minute support. In her final rally in the all-important state of Pennsylvania, Harris argued America was ready for a "fresh start." Trump, meanwhile, urged his backers to vote at his last event in Michigan, another state with huge election ramifications.
Trump and Harris are locked in a virtual tie heading into Election Day, particularly in the crucial swing states that will possibly sway the outcome of the vote.
Investors will be closely monitoring the returns, with the winner's policies set to potentially have a major influence on everything from the oil and gas sector and Big Tech to electric vehicles and financial services.
In a note to clients, the UBS analysts flagged risk to European cyclical stocks -- or firms affected by larger economic trends -- should Trump win the election. Companies with exposure to China, on whom Trump has threatened to impose steep import tariffs, could be especially impacted, they noted.
"Industrials and utilities would likely be most at risk from any rollback of green spending initiatives," the UBS analysts added. "And although tax cuts and easier regulations in energy and financials could offer some pockets of support under Trump, we view other factors, such as the tariff worries and a potential increase in bond yields, as bigger drivers of any sector moves."
Should Harris emerge victorious, on the other hand, the analysts said they see more "continuity" in policy, which would mitigate the implications for European stocks.
"The initial European equity market reaction is [...] more likely to reflect a pricing out of 'Trump trades,' which have increased over recent weeks, and an unwinding would likely be a small net positive for European equities," they said.
"Trump trades," which have included the US dollar and popular digital token Bitcoin , have roughly tracked the former president's chances of winning a second four-year term in the White House.
"However, beyond an initial reaction, we would expect the equity market to quickly return to the fundamental backdrop, which has historically been a bigger driver of equity markets than specific policy changes over the course of previous presidencies," the UBS analysts said.
Source: Investing.com
