Growth stocks have room to gain amid soft landing, UBS says

Investing.com -- An expected campaign of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could help ease some downward pressure on growth, supporting a soft landing for the US economy, according to analysts at UBS.

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to slash interest rates for the first time since March 2020 following the conclusion of its latest two-day meeting on Wednesday, but the scope of the reduction remains a source of considerable uncertainty for investors.

According to CME Group's closely-monitored FedWatch Tool, the chances of a jumbo 50-basis point cut -- rather than a more traditional 25-basis point drawdown -- stand at 61%. Borrowing costs currently stand at a more than two-decade high of 5.25% to 5.5%.

The UBS analysts argued that recent inflation figures -- which pointed to lingering stickiness in price growth -- are not enough to give officials a reason to initially slash borrowing costs aggressively this month.

But in a note to clients, the analysts estimated that the central bank, bolstered by signs of a softening labor market, will still roll out a total of 100 basis points in cuts in its three remaining gatherings in 2024.

They added that the US economy should also remain on course for a so-called "soft landing," in which a period of restrictive monetary policy successfully curbs inflation without sparking a sharp downturn in the labor market or broader activity.

"We acknowledge the excess savings built during the pandemic have been largely used up, and the high level of interest rates appears to be weighing on activity, especially in the housing market. But as the Fed embarks on a policy easing cycle, lower rates should ease some downward pressure on the economy," the UBS analysts said.

Against this backdrop, the analysts predicted that there is "room for growth stocks, in particular technology stocks, to rise further." However, they said that equity market gains, which was heavily concentrated earlier this year in a small cluster of big-name tech sector heavyweights, "will broaden out."

Source: Investing.com