Equity sentiment inches higher, one step closer to euphoria

Investing.com -- Investor sentiment is climbing, with Bank of America analysts noting a 33-basis-point increase in their Sell Side Indicator (SSI) to 57.0% in December. 

BofA states that sentiment is “one step closer to euphoria” in its note Thursday. 

The SSI, which tracks sell-side strategists’ recommended equity allocations in balanced funds, resumed its ascent after pausing last month, according to the bank.

Despite the S&P 500 experiencing its worst month since April, falling 2.4%, sentiment improved, marking the longest uninterrupted rise in the SSI since 2021.

BofA explains that at 57.0%, the SSI is at its highest level since early 2022 and remains in “Neutral” territory. 

However, it’s said to now be just 1 percentage point shy of a “Sell” signal, a threshold associated with more modest forward returns. 

The bank says that historically, the SSI has been a contrarian signal, indicating bullish conditions when Wall Street sentiment is bearish and vice versa. 

According to BofA, “The SSI’s current level of 57.0% suggests that the 20%+ annual returns we’ve seen over the past two years are likely behind us, but still points to a relatively healthy price return of 10% over the next 12 months.”

Furthermore, BofA’s Fund Manager Survey reportedly revealed a significant shift from cash to equities last month, with 30% of respondents predicting U.S. equities will be 2025’s top-performing asset class.

The bank says consumer confidence is also robust, with 53% expecting stock prices to rise over the next year, based on the Conference Board’s survey.

While heightened optimism raises the risk of complacency, BofA notes that bullish sentiment can persist for extended periods before market peaks. “Like today, the SSI was roughly 1ppt away from ‘Sell’ in February 2021, 10 months before the market peaked. The S&P 500 returned 27% during that time,” wrote BofA.

 

Source: Investing.com