Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Jam packed weak ahead of Thanksgiving

Investing.com -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high on Friday, wrapping up a strong week for US stocks.

The Dow climbed 426.16 points, or 0.97%, to settle at 44,296.51, marking its highest close ever and extending its winning streak to three sessions. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged up 0.35% to 5,969.34, securing gains for the fifth consecutive day.

The tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to close at 19,003.65. However, the index's growth was limited by declines of 3.2% in Nvidia (NASDAQ NVDA ) and 1.7% in Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL ).

Over the week, the Dow advanced around 2%, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains of approximately 1.7%. This performance comes as a reversal from the prior week, when Wall Street's rally following the election showed signs of slowing.

This week, markets will turn their attention to the release of the FOMC minutes and October’s inflation data for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

JPMorgan strategists expect the core PCE deflator to have increased by 0.31% month-over-month in October. If accurate, this would lift the year-over-year rate to 2.8%, up from 2.7%.

“We also look for continued softness in core capital goods, with orders only up by 0.1% in October and shipments turning positive, rising 0.2% on the month,” strategists added. Economic data 'to confirm that we have much to be thankful this year'

In addition to PCE and FOMC minutes, several more key economic indicators are set to be released this week, condensed into the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday.

These include regional business surveys, consumer confidence, personal income data, preliminary Q3 GDP figures, and initial jobless claims.

According to Yardeni Research, these reports “are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year."

This week will also see a few earnings reports, though the schedule is lighter than in recent weeks due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Companies set to report include Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM ) on Monday, followed by CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD ), Dell (NYSE:DELL ), and HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ ). on Tuesday. What analysts are saying about US stocks

Yardeni Research: “The US economy and stock market are doing well. The most widely anticipated recession of all time has been a no-show for a third year. The S&P 500 is up 25.9% ytd and 66.9% since the bull market started on October 12, 2022. The current bull market may very well continue to produce strong gains as it rages on, perhaps through the end of the decade and into the 2030s. Yes, it could turn out to be one of the longer bull markets on record.”

Vital Knowledge: “Stocks are extending their gains as the selection of Bessent for Treasury, which follows the Gaetz news from last week, helps to further stabilize the post-election/year-end Trump Trade that had wobbled a bit following some controversial cabinet decisions. While equities should be able to sustain upward momentum for the final weeks of 2024, we would note that Bessent’s elevation to Treasury isn’t a shock (markets assumed Trump would go with an investor-friendly person for the role, if not Bessent than Rowan or Warsh) while his choice for Labor raises questions about the degree of deregulation that will happen in Trump 2.0.”

RBC Capital Markets: “We are introducing our initial YE 2025 S&P 500 price target of 6,600 for a gain of 10.6% vs. the November 22nd close.”

“We see 6,200-6,700 as the range of our base case, or the path that stocks are currently on. The story the data tells us is that another year of solid economic and earnings growth, some political tailwinds, and some additional relief on inflation (which should keep the S&P 500’s P/E elevated) can keep stocks moving higher in the year ahead.”

Goldman Sachs’s Scott Rubner: “I think that US equities will rally [starting this week] into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 hitting 6200. We are entering the best seasonal period of the year for US equities.

“Retail euphoria is accelerating across equities and crypto and, high gains YTD may increase leverage from this cohort. US equities have seen one of the largest monthly inflows on record, but selling of US tech heavyweights has put a lid on the rally for now.”

“Historically, good years tend to follow more good years for US equities, and January is when capital gets deployed from the largest asset base. I placed my order for an SPX 7K hat.”

Evercore ISI: “Expensive valuations mean such sensitivity to the macro is likely to continue. Higher volatility is the base case as the new administration’s "Move Fast, Break Things" approach to reinvigorate America risks uncertainty from tariffs, immigration policy and importantly, bond yield movements. Yet near-term wobbles present opportunity to add exposure for S&P 500 6,600 by 6/30/25. Few signs of a bubble, in-check Mag 7 valuations, and rising AI adoption will support sentiment.”

Barclays: “Macro slowing to still-healthy levels should support more US equity upside next year, albeit a deceleration from '23-'24's breakneck pace. Positioning looks constructive, and policy uncertainty creates room for stock and sector selection.”

“Raise 2025 S&P 500 PT to 6600 from 6500, based on 24x our FY25 EPS estimate of $271. PT implies 10% upside from our revised 2024 year-end PT of 6000 (up from 5600); EPS implies +11.5% Y/Y growth from our FY24 EPS estimate of $243 (up from $241); US Tech exceptionalism and "virtuous cycle" between income and consumption remain intact.”

Source: Investing.com