Don't sell the first cut; buy the election: Wells Fargo

Investing.com -- Investors shouldn’t “sell the first cut” by Federal Reserve but rather “buy the election weakness,” Wells Fargo analysts said in a note Wednesday.

In the report, the investment bank points out the typical pre-election market risk-off behavior, driven by uncertainty, but suggests this opens opportunities for post-election gains. Historically, markets have shown double-digit gains in the 12 months following an election, with large caps gaining an average of 18.4% during that period.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the note suggests disappointment for those hoping for more aggressive easing, as "the Fed has not signaled 50bps."

Analysts believe a risk-off move is “likely to persist into Election Day as uncertainty slows activity,” but that should not deter investors from buying the election uncertainty. 

Wells Fargo maintains its 2024 price target for the S&P 500 at 5,535, based on expected earnings of $270 per share for 2025.

The S&P 500 experienced a decline of up to 8% from its early August peak but rebounded by the month's end by 2.4%, moving closer to record highs.

Bank of America strategists noted that the saying "best days often follow worst days" held true this summer, as stocks managed to stay resilient in the face of market volatility. August marked the index’s fourth consecutive month of gains, and it has now posted gains in nine of the last ten months.

Defensive sectors were the top performers, driven by concerns over a potential economic slowdown, with Staples (+5.8%), Health Care (+5.0%), and Utilities (+4.3%) posting solid returns.

On the other hand, cyclicals, including Energy (-2.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.1%), lagged behind.

Source: Investing.com