Buyback strategies remain a bright spot for Europe, says Barclays

Investing.com -- Buyback strategies have emerged as a rare source of optimism in Europe's challenging equity market landscape, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC ). 

Despite broader market uncertainties, companies actively repurchasing their shares are delivering good returns. 

The Barclays buyback announcements basket, which tracks such activity, has outperformed the STOXX 600 index by 4.6% since the start of October 2024.

This success is fueled by strong corporate activity in sectors such as staples, financials, and energy, which collectively led the charge in share buybacks. 

Over the past month alone, European companies announced €16 billion in repurchase programs, with these three sectors maintaining steady participation. 

Staples led with €19 billion in announcements over the previous quarter, further emphasizing the sector's resilience and investor appeal.

Barclays highlights that stocks with significant buyback activity have shown greater stability amid market volatility. 

A proprietary model developed by the bank, which assesses the likelihood of share repurchase announcements, accurately forecasted 63% of such programs during the third-quarter earnings season. 

These high-probability stocks have outperformed the broader market by 2.5% since the earnings season began, reinforcing the strategy's effectiveness.

Going forward, the brokerage anticipates continued momentum as companies exit post-earnings blackout periods. 

With nearly 80% of buyback programs slated to end in 2025 yet to be executed, there is substantial room for increased activity. 

This trend is expected to bolster market support as firms re-engage with repurchase strategies. 

Analysts at Barclays also forecast a modest 4% growth in earnings per share for the STOXX 600 in 2025, a factor likely to drive further buyback activity.

Moreover, buyback strategies offer a cost-effective avenue for investors to gain exposure to cyclical economic recovery. 

As per analysts at Barclays, stocks prioritizing buybacks are trading at a discount relative to other cyclical plays, making them attractive options for those betting on a broader economic upturn.

Despite its relatively subdued profile compared to other investment strategies, the robust performance of buyback-focused equities underscores their significance. 

As Barclays analysts observe, this approach is carving out a "bright spot" in an otherwise murky market outlook, with ample potential to sustain its role as a key driver of returns heading into 2025.

Source: Investing.com