ASML stock: 'Glass half full or half empty?'

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley while reiterating its "Equal Weight" rating and €680 price target for ASML (AS:ASML ), described investor sentiment as evenly split between optimistic and cautious outlooks.

“The investor base is evenly balanced on a glass half full or half empty outlook for ASML just now with the share price likely range bound until a greater consensus is found,” analyst said.

The brokerage expects the chip equipment maker’s fourth quarter results to affirm its 2025 revenue guidance of €30-€35 billion but anticipates the market’s focus to shift quickly to 2026 growth prospects.

While TSMC's solid results boost sentiment, uncertainties around export controls, DRAM and HBM supply, and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC )'s ordering trends are likely to weigh on growth expectations for 2026. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS ) sees high-NA EUV volumes picking up more meaningfully from 2027, with HBM demand driving near-term momentum.

With limited visibility on a clear catalyst, Morgan Stanley views the stock as range-bound and continues to value it at mid-cycle multiples of 25 times forward P/E. The bank highlighted that an outperforming Q4 order book, which it estimates at €4.2 billion, could sway investor sentiment positively.

Source: Investing.com