Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide stock action on Monday
Indian indices closed lower as Sensex fell 454 points and Nifty dropped 123 points. Small- and midcap stocks had their worst week. Market sentiment subdued globally with concerns over interest rate cuts and diverging stress test results. Sharekhan's Jatin Gedia says: "In terms of levels, 22215 – 22250 is the immediate hurdle zone while 21900 -21860 is the crucial support."
Indian benchmark equity indices closed lower on Friday, while small- and mid-cap stocks logged their worst week in 15 months on rising concerns of froth in the segments and as stress test results indicated a disparity in the durations that funds would take to liquify their portfolios.The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex declined 454 points or 0.62% to settle at 72,643. The broader NSE Nifty dropped 123 points or 0.56% to end at 22,023.
The dropped 5.5% and 4.66% this week, the biggest weekly drop since December 2022.
Here's how analysts read the market pulse:
"Immediate support is situated at the 50DMA, currently at 21,900, which is expected to provide support for the Nifty. A decisive drop below 21,900 could lead to a sharp decline in the index. On the upside, resistance is observed in the range of 22,200-22,250," said Rupak De, LKP Securities.
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Jatin Gedia, Sharekhan, said, "On the daily charts we can observe that Nifty has managed to hold on to the support zone of 21900 – 21860 as of today. The 40-day exponential average (21970) absorbing the selling pressure. So, until this zone is held, we can expect the upside momentum to resume. In terms of levels, 22215 – 22250 is the immediate hurdle zone while 21900 – 21860 is the crucial support."
That said, here’s a look at what some key indicators are suggesting for Monday's action:
US closes down second week in a row
Wall Street closed its second straight losing week on Friday, giving back some of the gains that helped push the stock market to an all-time high earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 33.39 points, or 0.6%, to 5,117.09 on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190 points, or 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 155.36 points, or 1%, to 15,973.17. Treasury yields edged higher in the bond market. Adobe slumped after giving investors a weak revenue forecast. Investors closed out a week of economic reports that showed inflation, though broadly cooling, remains hotter than expected. The reports have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, but Wall Street still sees potential for a cut in June.
European shares dip
European shares dipped on Friday as risk sentiment remained subdued due to mounting concerns the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, though strength in telecommunications stocks helped stem losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended 0.2% lower after touching record highs in three of the past five sessions.
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Tech View: Small negative candle
Nifty on Friday ended 123 points lower to form a small negative candle on the daily charts and a bearish engulfing pattern on weekly charts.
The short term and the near-term trend of Nifty remains weak. A decisive move below 21900 could open sharp weakness down to the next lower support of 21500 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is at 22200 levels, Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said.
Stocks showing bullish bias:
Momentum indicator Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade on the counters of Devyani International, Poonawalla Fincorp, TCS, Ajanta Pharma, Timken India, and Tata Elxsi among others.
The MACD is known for signaling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.
Stocks signaling weakness ahead
The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of Deepak Fertilisers, Graphite India, Bharat Forge, Cholamandalam Financial Holdings, Laurus Labs, and Titan Company among others. Bearish crossover on the MACD on these counters indicated that they have just begun their downward journey.
Most active stocks in value terms
HDFC Bank (Rs 10,427 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 7,149 crore), ITC (Rs 3,098 crore), RIL (Rs 2,729 crore), Kotak Bank (Rs 2,695 crore), Tata Motors (Rs 2,224 crore), and SBI (Rs 2,178 crore) among others were among the most active stocks on NSE in value terms. Higher activity on a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with highest trading turnovers in the day.
Most active stocks in volume terms
ITC (Shares traded: 7.3 crore), HDFC Bank (Shares traded: 7.1 crore), Tata Steel (Shares traded: 6.8 crore), ICICI Bank (Shares traded: 6.6 crore), Power Grid (Shares traded: 4.3 crore), NTPC (Shares traded: 4.3 crore), and ONGC (Shares traded: 3.5 crore)among others were among the most traded stocks in the session on NSE.
Stocks showing buying interest
Shares of Solar Industries, Bharti Airtel, Colgate-Palmolive, Hitachi Energy India, and Intellect Design among others witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs, signaling bullish sentiment.
Stocks seeing selling pressure
Shares of Hindustan Zinc, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, HLE Glasscoat, IIFL Finance, and VIP Industries hit their 52-week lows, signaling bearish sentiment on the counters.
Sentiment meter favours bears
Overall, market breadth favoured bears as 2,106 stocks ended in the red, while 1,725 names settled in the green.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Source: Stocks-Markets-Economic Times
