US dollar gains as US election draws nearer - UBS

The US dollar has gained more ground as the US presidential election draws near, UBS noted, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.

A new USD-positive over the past week has been media reports of somewhat better outlook for Donald Trump in the latest polls, as outcomes that allow for policies such as more aggressive tariffs are viewed as more USD positive. 

“Higher odds of a Trump presidency are likely to be associated with a stronger USD near term,” said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Oct. 16.

Where does this leave us now with our USD views? 

Our expected ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 incorporated the possibility of a material USD rebound between now and year end, even if our year-end forecasts see a modestly lower USD from current levels. 

Last week, with an eye to our year end forecast, we entered a long AUD/USD call reverse knockout, but we are not willing to implement a similar trade yet for EUR/USD and USD/JPY .

The spot is still far enough from our range extremes and high JPY implied volatility and negative carry make long JPY positions unattractive so close to US elections. 

Turning to this week’s ECB meeting, the market is very confident that another 25bp rate cut will be delivered and we do not have a strong reason to disagree. 

Market expectations are very muted for any form of surprise, and risk reversal skews bid again for EUR puts point to a market that is already primed for the risk of EUR softness.

With market pricing in line with our economists’ terminal rate expectations, we see EUR/USD as more exposed to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade recent softness on ECB reasons alone.

At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.

 

Source: Investing.com