Risk of a USD/JPY overshoot into new year: BofA

Investing.com -- The dollar has dominated the yen this year as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan implement opposing monetary policy measures, and now the risk is growing for the USD/JPY to overshoot before an expected correction in the first quarter of next year, strategists from BofA said in a recent note.

"We are structurally bullish on USD/JPY but have expected a correction in 1Q25 on increased US policy uncertainties," BofA noted, though flagged the risk of the USD/JPY overshooting as bets on a Bank of Japan, or BoJ, rate hike fade.

USD/JPY rose above 153 last week as the market priced out expectations for a BoJ rate hike at its December meeting, the strategist said. 

This pricing dropped from over 60% at the end of November to just 16% as of now, following media reports suggesting that the BoJ is inclined to hold rates unchanged due to uncertainties around US economic policy and wage trends.

Falling odds of a BoJ rate hike increases the risk of USD/JPY overshooting, potentially triggering foreign exchange intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance before the BoJ's January monetary policy meeting. the strategists said.

If USD/JPY trades close to 155 before the BoJ's December meeting, the lack of a rate hike could impact market perceptions regarding Japan's currency policy. "The FX market would interpret recent media reports as the BoJ being fine with USD/JPY somewhere below 155," they added.

In the lead up to the BoJ December meeting on  Dec. 18-19, BofA strategist expect that if USD/JPY rallies after the meeting, intervention risks may be limited due to thin liquidity conditions typical of year-end trading.

Source: Investing.com