Futures down ahead of key inflation data; Tesla rises

By Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Pranav Kashyap

(Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures declined on Thursday as investors braced for a highly anticipated inflation report that is expected to provide clues on the likely course the central bank's policymakers will take for the remainder of the year.

Most megacap stocks were flat-to-lower in premarket trading, although Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA ) gained 1.1% ahead of the highly anticipated unveiling of its robotaxi at an event later in the day.

Dow E-minis were down 44 points, or 0.10%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 10 points, or 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 40.5 points, or 0.20%.

The S&P 500 and the Dow notched up record closing highs on Wednesday, after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers had favored September's outsized 50-basis-point rate cut.

In the wake of strong economic data over the past week, traders have steadily decreased bets on a 50-basis-point rate reduction at the Fed's next meeting, now pricing in an 82% chance of a 25-bps cut in November and an 18% chance of no change at all.

All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index report, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, for insights into the central bank's battle with inflation and its implications for borrowing costs.

September's CPI is forecast to show core inflation holding steady at 3.20% on an annual basis, while slipping slightly to 0.2% month-over-month, according to economists Reuters polled.

"The CPI report is likely to show that inflation has leveled off and perhaps even cooled further. Price stability is likely to prove critical to extending the economic cycle," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X.

"There is little reason for the Fed to deviate from 25 bps cuts through (the) year end, given the favorable economic backdrop."

Weekly jobless claims data is also scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on the day.

Attention will also shift to the start of third-quarter earnings season, with major banks scheduled to report on Friday.

The third-quarter earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is estimated at 5% year-over-year, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. This will be a key test to ascertain if the recent equity rally is sustainable.

Apart from earnings, investors are grappling with rising Treasury yields - the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is trading around its highest since late July - along with the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Investors were also monitoring the impact from Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on Florida's west coast late on Wednesday.



Among single movers, shares of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE ) fell 1.5% as former executives distanced themselves from activist investor Starboard's campaign against the drugmaker.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL ) lost 6.3% after the Atlanta-based carrier posted a third-quarter adjusted profit of $1.50 per share, lower than the $1.52 estimated by analysts.

Source: Investing.com