Dollar set for weekly gains ahead of key inflation release

The US dollar slipped slightly Friday, pausing for breath after strong gains this week as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 107.960, after earlier this week climbing to a two-year high. Dollar on course for weekly gains

The dollar index has slipped slightly Friday, but is still on course of weekly gains of around 1%, bolstered by a relatively hawkish US rate outlook after the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year earlier this week.

The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, a likely two cuts of 25 basis points, instead of the four reductions indicated in the previous forecasts in September. 

The November core PCE index is expected to rise 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.8% the prior month, while the monthly figure is seen climbing 0.2%, a slip from 0.3% in October. 

A stronger-than-expected rise in the core PCE index could have an outsized impact on markets, as the hawkish nature of the Fed’s comments has shifted the likelihood towards fewer or potentially no further reductions next year.

"Market pricing moved hawkishly and towards our view of just one further 25 bps cut outlined in our team's 2025 outlook," analysts from Macquarie said in a note. Sterling near one-month low after weak retail sales

In Europe, GBP/USD traded largely flat at 1.2500, after falling on Thursday to a one-month low after Bank of England policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.

Data released earlier Friday showed that British retail sales rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, below the expected jump of 0.5%.

EUR/USD rose 0.2% higher to 1.0385, just off a one-month low, and still on track for a weekly drop of over 1% on the back of the dollar's strength.

German producer prices rose unexpectedly in November, increasing by 0.1% on the year, instead of the 0.3% decline predicted, while the business climate index in Germany's retail sector fell slightly, the Ifo Institute said on Friday.

This year was very challenging for the retail sector and the overall economic environment is likely to remain difficult in 2025, "even though many retailers are hoping for an improvement in consumer sentiment," said Ifo expert Patrick Hoeppner.

The European Central Bank lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade. Yen helped by CPI data

In Asia, USD/JPY fell 0.4% to 156.74, as consumer inflation for November read slightly stronger than expected, strengthening the case for an eventual rate hike by the Bank of Japan .

But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025. 

USD/CNY edged 0.1% higher to 7.3050, hitting its highest level since November 2023.

The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.

 

Source: Investing.com