Dollar gains on trimmed rate expectations; sterling weakens post inflation

The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, trading near two-month peaks on expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while sterling slumped after benign inflation data.

At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.180, remaining close to Monday’s two-month peak. Dollar helped by trimmed rate cut expectations

Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.

Adding to these expectations were comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday, who said he had penciled in just one more interest rate reduction of 25 basis points this year when he updated his projections for last month's U.S. central bank meeting.

Most market participants see two more cuts this year, totaling 50 bps, and traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME ) FedWatch Tool. Sterling slumps after inflation release

In Europe, GBP/USD slumped 0.5% to 1.3003, after data showed British inflation fell more than expected in September, paving the way for a rate cut next month.

The UK’s inflation rate fell to 1.7% on an annual basis, below the forecast 1.9% and the 2.2% recorded a month earlier. 

This was the first time it had fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, and added to data seen earlier in the week that showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years.

“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year (November and December),” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Given the comments by Governor Andrew Bailey earlier this month suggesting the BoE could increase the pace of easing, markets may be tempted to price in some chance of a 50bp rate cut in November.”

EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower to 1.0882, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.

The ECB has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.

“EUR/USD is predominantly driven by external factors. The substantial drop in oil prices has narrowed the scope for a further drop based on market factors, but we continue to suspect that pre-US election positioning should favor a weaker EUR/USD,” said ING.  Yuan nurses weekly losses

USD/CNY fell slightly to 7.1179, with the yuan nursing losses this week as sentiment soured over the country’s plans for more stimulus.

China’s Ministry of Finance said it will enact a slew of fiscal measures to boost growth, but did not specify the timing or size of the planned measures, spurring uncertainty over its effectiveness.

USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 149.43, with the pair climbing closer to the 150 resistance level.

Consumer inflation data due later this week is expected to offer more cues on the Bank of Japan’s plans to hike rates further.

 

Source: Investing.com