Bearish dollar momentum building; sterling hits one-month high

The U.S. dollar fell Monday ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole later this week. 

At 05:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower to 101.977, falling close to seven-month lows.  Bearish dollar momentum starting to build

The minutes , due on Wednesday, and Powell's speech on Friday are likely to be the main drivers of currency movement for the week, and traders expect a dovish tone to emerge.

“The signs are subtle, but bearish dollar momentum is starting to build,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “The DXY dollar index is now dropping through the lows seen in early August. Events this week such as the July FOMC minutes, payroll revisions, and Federal Reserve speakers could add to the dollar's losses. Investors may want to see how much lower they can drag the dollar into September.”

The Fed has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, after hiking its policy rate by 525 basis points since 2022.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September, with a 24.5% chance of a 50 bp move.  Sterling rises to one-month high

In Europe, GBP/USD traded 0.2% higher at 1.2963, climbing to a one-month high as sterling benefits from dollar weakness.

“GBP/USD looks set for a retest of the year's high at 1.3045 as broad dollar weakness dominates global FX markets,” said analysts at ING. “We had thought that the Bank of England's dovishness could keep sterling gains in check. On that, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium this Friday.”

“What we may be underestimating, however, is the demand for sterling coming through merger and acquisition activity. The UK this year is the target region for over $200bn worth of deals.” 

EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher to 1.1037, edging towards last week’s over seven-month high.

“Should EUR/USD start to trade through 1.11, we would not underestimate its ability to follow through given that realised volatility has been so low, for so long,” ING added. Yen surges higher

In Asia, USD/JPY fell 1% to 146.05, with the big move lower down to broad dollar weakness, along with the potential for further policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is set to appear in parliament on Friday, where he is expected to discuss the central bank's decision last month to raise interest rates.

USD/CNY fell 0.3% to 7.1408, with the yuan heading for its sharpest gain in two weeks, riding a wave of broad dollar selling as investors bet on U.S. rate cuts.

 

Source: Investing.com