OPEC cuts crude demand growth forecast in 2024

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, citing weakness in China, the world’s largest crude importer.

OPEC said, in a monthly report , that world oil demand will rise by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month.

"This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and in some cases for the second quarter, as well as softening expectations for China's oil demand growth in 2024," OPEC said in the report.

"Despite the slow start to the summer driving season compared to the previous year, transport fuel demand is expected to remain solid due to healthy road and air mobility."

This is the first reduction in OPEC's 2024 forecast since it was first made in July 2023, having stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and next year in July, saying resilient economic growth and air travel would support fuel use in the summer months.

Even after this reduction, the producer group still expects far stronger growth than the International Energy Agency, which tends to be relied upon by industrialised countries for information.

The IEA sees demand growth of 970,000 bpd this year, but is also expected to update its figures this week.

OPEC also cut next year's demand growth estimate to 1.78 million bpd from 1.85 million bpd previously expected.

OPEC+, a group which includes OPEC as well as allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. 

It agreed in June to extend the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd until the end of September and gradually phase it out from October.

 

Source: Investing.com