Oil prices settle lower on Gaza ceasefire deal hopes; US inventory data eyed

Oil prices settled lower Tuesday, falling to their weakest levels since mid-June as growing expectations of a Gaza ceasefire and uncertainty over demand growth weighed on sentiment. 

At 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT), Brent oil futures fell 1.3% to $81.20 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 1.5% to $77.22 a barrel. Gaza ceasefire in focus- 

Oil markets were watching for any new developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict, after Israel signaled that ceasefire talks will resume from this week.  

Efforts to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and militant group Hamas have gained momentum over the past month. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday at the White House, and the two are to discuss ways to reach a ceasefire, as well as Iran and other topics.

The war in Gaza has lent support to oil prices as investors priced in the risk of potential disruptions to global crude supply.

"Ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East and an uncertain macroeconomic outlook in China are exerting downward pressure on oil prices this week," Rystad Energy said in Tuesday note.  Demand worries remain 

Markets remained doubtful over the outlook for crude demand, amid growing signs that global economic growth was cooling amid pressure from high interest rates.

Doubts over top oil importer China remained even after the country unexpectedly lowered benchmark interest rates to foster growth. But analysts said the cut was too small to inspire confidence.

The Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party also yielded scant cues on planned stimulus measures from Beijing, even as the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter. 

Cooling economic growth bodes poorly for the oil demand outlook just as some warn of potential supply surplus in 2025.

Morgan Stanley analysts warned in a note this week that the oil market will likely shift into a surplus by 2025, with prices expected to fall within the mid-to-high $70s range. 

Still, Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to end the third quarter at $86 a barrel, representing some near-term upside from current levels.  US inventories due 

The American Petroleum Institute , a trade group, is due to release its estimates for last week's oil inventories later in the session, with the official U.S. government data due on Wednesday.

U.S. oil inventories have seen consistent draws over the last few weeks as the summer driving season proceeds to drive demand in the world’s largest consumer.

(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Source: Investing.com