Oil prices rebound after weekly drop; demand woes, Middle East tensions in focus

Oil prices rose Monday, regaining some ground after last week's steep losses, with the competing factors of weak global demand and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East in focus.

At 08:15 ET (12:15 GMT), Brent oil futures rose 1.7% to $74.27 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2% to $70.06 a barrel. Oil nurses steep weekly loss

Oil prices were nursing their worst week since early-September--with Brent settling down more than 7%, while WTI lost around 8%--their biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, due to slowing economic growth in China and falling risk premiums in the Middle East.

Sentiment improved slightly Monday after the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark loan prime rate , part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.

Data on Friday showed that China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.

China announced its most targeted stimulus measures yet in the past month. But the measures failed to inspire much confidence among traders as Beijing did not provide details on the scale and timing of the planned measures. Middle East tensions persist

The Middle East conflict remained in focus, intensifying over the weekend as Israel kept up its offensive against Hamas and Hezbollah, in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively.

Israel also said it was planning to attack sites in Beirut with links to Hezbollah’s finances.

The Israel-Hamas war, which hit a one-year mark earlier in October, has been a key driver of oil prices, with traders attaching or removing a risk premium from prices based on the state of the conflict.

U.S. attempts at brokering a ceasefire have so far yielded few results. Oil fundamentals bearish - UBS

Oil market fundamentals remain bearish despite geopolitical risks, according to analysts at UBS in a note dated Monday.

While the ongoing conflict in the Middle East initially raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply, the direct risks have since diminished.

“For 2025, we continue to see the market just about balanced, but assuming no unwind of the OPEC+ production cuts,” the analysts said.

One of the major factors contributing to the bearish outlook is the weaker-than-expected demand from China, a critical driver of global oil consumption.

UBS has downgraded its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.1 million barrels per day to 0.9 million barrels per day.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Source: Investing.com