Oil prices edges lower; China stimulus, Trump repercussions in focusvictory
Investing.com -- Oil prices slipped Thursday, continuing the previous session's weakness on the back of a strong dollar and lower crude imports in China.
At 08:45 ET (13:45 GMT), Brent oil futures fell 0.2% to $74.82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.4% to $71.46 a barrel.
Crude prices were nursing some losses from the prior session after Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 elections sent the dollar surging to a four-month high, pressuring oil markets. China NPC meeting watched for fiscal cues
China’s National People’s Congress is in the middle of a four-day meeting this week, and is widely expected to outline plans for more fiscal spending in the coming months to boost economic growth.
The world’s biggest oil importer is grappling with a prolonged slowdown in growth, and is expected to outline a sharp increase in fiscal spending. Beijing had announced a string of aggressive stimulus measures over the past month, with the NPC meeting set to provide more insight on the fiscal front.
Data released earlier this week showed that Chinese imports shrank 2.3% y-o-y in October, more than expectations for a 1.5% drop and reversing course from a 0.3% increase in the prior month.
JPMorgan analysts said in a recent note that a Trump victory could see Beijing roll out even more fiscal stimulus, given that Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on the country. Markets digest Trump victory
Oil prices had initially tumbled on Wednesday after Trump won the 2024 presidential elections. This initial weakness was driven by concerns that U.S. oil production will increase even further under Trump, increasing a global supply glut.
But prices curbed some losses amid bets that Trump will take a hardline stance on Iran and Venezuela, likely imposing more sanctions against the two and cutting off some global oil supply.
Trump is also expected to roll out more expansionary policies, which bode well for economic growth, and could underpin U.S. demand in the coming years.
"The impact of a Trump presidency is still uncertain with several opposing forces potentially at play," analysts at ING said, in a note.
"USD strength is likely to provide headwinds not just to oil but to the broader commodities complex, as we witnessed yesterday. Furthermore, a Trump administration could see an increase in oil and gas leasing on federal land, which had fallen significantly under Biden. However, US supply growth is going to remain largely price-dependent. On the flip side, a Trump presidency also opens the door for a more hawkish US stance against Iran, which could mean stricter enforcement of oil sanctions. Stricter enforcement of sanctions potentially leaves a little more than 1m b/d of oil supply at risk." Hurricane Rafael, Fed meeting in focus
Beyond U.S. politics, markets took negative cues from data showing a bigger-than-expected build in oil inventories .
Traders were also watching for any supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Rafael, which is set to move through the oil-rich region this week.
"According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, a little over 304k b/d of US Gulf of Mexico oil production has been shut in due to the hurricane," said ING.
A Federal Reserve meeting is also expected to conclude later on Thursday, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
Source: Investing.com
