Citi lifts its Brent forecast for Q1 '25

Oil prices surged on Friday and were on track for a third straight week of gains, prompting Citigroup (NYSE:C ) to revise higher its average Brent prices for the first quarter of 2025.

At 08:55 ET (13:55 GMT), the Brent contract rose 3.7% to $79.75 a barrel, on track for a third straight week of gains.

The crude markets have rallied on potentially larger geopolitical impacts on Iran’s oil exports and cold weather boosting heating demand and hitting US oil supply, analysts at Citi said, in a note dated Jan. 9.

“With prices potentially firmer until the Trump Administration takes office, we revise up average Brent prices from $65/bbl to $71/bbl for 1Q’25 as Chinese buyers have pulled back more than expected on buying Iranian oil,” Citi said.

Ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, expectations are mounting over potential supply disruptions from tighter sanctions against Iran and Russia while oil stockpiles remain low.

However, Citi maintains its overall bearish 2025 view, with Brent prices dropping to the $60s/bbl from the second quarter of 2025 amid larger-than-usual seasonal stock builds.

“Money manager positioning in crude has lengthened, providing more runway for downside. Trump’s positions on trade tariffs, boosting US energy supply, and lowering energy prices still hints to downside for oil prices,” Citi said.

 

Source: Investing.com